The first weekend of the NCAA tourney is by far my favorite time of the year. There is nothing better than the opening Thursday/Friday and last year was even better with my tv setup. Last year I had 4 HDTVs all with seperate receivers so we(have a 4day party basically) could watch all 4 games. This year it ets slightly better as I have added a 5th tv, so now we'll have all 4 games going on the upper 32 inch tvs, then the "feature game" will be on the big screen below those 4.
I'm going to talk a bit about almost every first round game, give my picks, show the spread to show some people how a 12 beating a 5 and a 13 beating a 4 isn't much of an upset at all and finally give my final 4 and champion.
I got my 2008 Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook "Tournament Update" today, for all you bigtime fans out there who buy preview magazines, this is the magazine you should be getting. It does cost like $50 or so, but the book is huge and you get the tourney update which is 140 pages
Going to start in the South Region with seedings in paranthesis and the line being by the favored team, if I put something in red it means I would likely bet the game.
(1) Memphis 24.5 vs (16) UT-ArlingtonNot too much to say about this specific game, if I had to bet, I'd probably lean towards Memphis and lay the 24.5. UTA did lose by only 5 at Oklahoma St earlier in the year. Memphis is a team that I will not have in my final 4 due to free throw shooting and a few other reasons.
(8) Mississippi St 2.5 vs (9) OregonMississippi St was not a very impressive team looking at their precon stuff, sort of makes me wonder how this Miss St team who is 21-9 can be the same seed as a 25-7 IU team who didn't have all these ugly losses Miss St has. Miss St lost at home to Clemson, crushed on a nuetral site by Southern Illinois and lost on a nuetral site to Miami Ohio, also lost at home to Miami Fl and lost at South Alabama. They did go 12-4 in the SEC though, but that is a bit misleading as they only played Tennessee once and lost at home and they played Vandy once and lost, but that was at Vandy and in OT. They only played Kentucky once as well and that was at home which they won, so the 12-4 SEC record, you may as well throw that out the window. Oregon lost tons of games this year, 13 in fact, which is a ton for a 9 seed. They went 9-9 in the Pac 10 which is a balanced conference schedule(playing every team twice) but they were swept by UCLA, USC, and Washington St. I really hate both of these teams resumes, but I lean towards Oregon slightly here with the 2.5 points. Malik Hairston is a stud shooting 53% from the floor and 44% from 3, then Leunen is a 50% 3 point shooter which is as good as it gets, Taylor shoots 40% as well from 3. Maybe if these guys get hot they are a team who can beat Memphis. Oregon is also a very good free throw shooting team while Miss St shoots 64%. Miss St turns the ball over nearly 3x more than their opponent which I believe is worst in the tourney.
Oregon +2.5 is the play(5) Michigan St 6.5 vs (12) TempleMichigan St is always a dangerous tourney team, a team that can get out and run and a team who actually plays defense. Mich St started out the season as Big Ten favs and ranked top 10 in the nation, a close loss to UCLA in a game they were up with 3 minutes to go and a win vs Texas in December both are pretty impressive. Michigan St struggled on the road at times in conference play but they can be a very dangerous team who is very talented. Temple went 11-5 in the A-10 but had a pretty ugly preseason though I guess most of the losses were close. They lsot at Tenn by 17, lost to Providence and Charleston on neutral sites by 2 and 3 and beat Marist in OT, also lost at Akron by 2 and lost at home to Nova by 8, lost to Florida by 17 and home to Duke by 10. So Temple has played a pretty decent schedule. They are winners of seven strait as well beating St Joes twice by 1 and 5. I def like Michigan St to win but the 6.5 is a tough call, not much lean either way here.
(4) Pittsburgh 9 vs (13) Oral RobertsVery very interesting game here as Pittsburgh is a bit of a media darling right now after their Big East tourney championship run. Bob Knight picked Pitt as his national champion and I've heard a lot of talk of Pitt being the team that can take down Memphis. I'm not that sold on them and think they are sort of ripe for upset and I don't expect them to get out of the first weekend. Pittsburgh is one of those Big East teams who play noone during the precon schedule a la Syracuse, Georgetown, and a few others. This year Pitt's first 7 games were at home with the toughest game being Saint Louis. They they traveled to Duquense and Washington winning both, beat Duke in OT on a neutral site and lost by 25 at Dayton. Oral Roberts went 16-2 in the MidCon and won the conference tourney. Oral Roberts played a pretty tough non-con schedule losing at Texas AM, at Arkansas, at Texas and beating Oklahoma St, they also lost to Creighton in the "Bracket Buster" . Oral Roberts doesn't have the scoring frontcourt of years past, but they do have a good defender in Yemi Ogunoye who shut down James Anderson... scoreless. This guy should be able to do a good job on Sam Young. Oral Roberts 2 leading scorers are both good 3 point shooters, both having hit over 80 and shooting over 40%. Pitt is a 65% free throw shooting team. I haven't decided if I'll take Oral Roberts to win outright in my brackets but
Oral Roberts +9 is the play.(6) Marquette 6 vs (11) KentuckyKentucky is a real hard to team to get a good handle on since Patterson is out, if he was around I'd probably like them plus 6, but without him, this team isn't very good. Marquette doesn't really have a good big man so that helps out Kentucky a bit. Marquette is actually a pretty decent matchup for Kentucky. Kentucky has played alright in the 5 games without Patterson and I'd probably take the 6 if I had to take someone, but Marquette will be advancing in my bracket.
(3) Stanford 14.5 vs (14) Cornell Stanford is a team anchored by the Lopez twins, mbn to have twin 7 footers. Stanford doesn't have much shooting from the perimiter but you really don't need that when you have a pair of 7 footers. Stanford didn't really play anyone in the precon schedule, they did travel to Northwestern and win by 12, lost at Siena by 12, and won at Texas Tech by 1. They lost to UCLA 3 times though the 2nd game was basically a win as they got robbed by the refs. Stanford is a team I'm not overly impressed with, the pair of 7 footers is nice, but they still didn
't dominate losing 7 games on the year. They also turn the ball over more than their opponents which is a pretty ugly stat. Cornell went 22-5 on the year and 14-0 in the Ivy. They lost at Ohio, vs Colgate, at Bucknell, and at Syracuse in the precon, they also lost at Duke in a game that was close late. They haven't lost since Jan 6th. Cornell is led by Randy Wittman's son Ryan who averages 15.4 a game shooting 47% from 3 point range, he also shoots 86% from the line. The 2nd leading scorer shoots 91% from the line, 3rd leading scorer shoots 93% from the line. That is some sick sick stuff. Cornell does have a 7 footer who plays 21 mpg and brings down 6.4 rebounds in those 21 minutes... highly impressive. Cornell shoots 41.4% as a team from 3 point range. I really like Cornell getting 14.5 here, not sure if I will pick them outright or not. I like the winner of this game advancing to the Sweet 16 though.
Cornell +14.5 is the play.(7) Miami(Fl) 1 vs (10) Saint MarysMiami reeled off 12 strait wins to open the year winning at Miss St and beating VCU on a neutral site, they lost to Winthrop. Miami was just 8-8 in the ACC,they beat Duke by 1 at home. They won 2 road games in conference both by a possession or less. Saint Marys beat Drake and Seton Hall in the noncon, they lost by 1 at home To Kent State. They went 12-2 in conference splitting with Gonzaga and losing at San Diego. I don't think I have seen either of these teams play a minute all year and don't have much of an opinion either way. I'll probably choose St Marys in my bracket though. St Marys does have a big 6-11 260 guy that can bang with the Miami guys.
(2) Texas 16 vs (15) Austin PeayNot too much to say here, Texas should roll and I would lean towards a Texas cover. Texas is my final four pick out of the South Region.
West Regional(1) UCLA 32 vs (16) Miss Valley StOnce again not going to break this down much. UCLA is my final four pick out of this regional. 32 points is a lot of points for a team who plays the UCLA style to cover. I would lean Miss St with the 32 here and if it moved up at all, I'd probably have to make it a play.
(8) BYU vs (9) Texas A&M 2Here is our first game where the lower seed is the favorite, this is usually a trend you would want to follow. BYU lost by 10 vs UNC and 7 vs Michigan St on neutral sites, so that is decent there. BYU is only a 65% free throw shoooting team due to Trent Plaisted's 54.5% shooting on 253 fros on the year. He averages 16 and 8. Texas A&M is also a poor free throw shooting team at 64%. Texas AM only going 8-8 in the Big 12 is a bit ugly, what is odd about it is they went 4-4 away from home winning at Iowa St, Mizzou, Baylor and Oklahoma St. Texas A&M will be my bracket choice.
(5) Drake 4 vs (12) Western KentuckyDrake is 28-4 beating Iowa St by 35, winning at Iowa and Butler in the noncon. They lost at Saint Marys by 6 back in November. Drake shoots 76% from the line and turns the ball over at a much lower rate than opponents. 3 seniors start for this club, while the other 2 is a jr and a soph. Western Kentucky boasts a senior point guard and a very good senior in 6'5 Courtney Lee. Western Kentucky does not have much scoring punch from the frontcourt which would be Drake's weakness. I like Drake here to move on.
(4) UConn 11 vs (13) San DiegoSan Diego is in due to winning the conference tourney beating Saint Marys and Gonzaga on their homecourt to advance. SD's lone noncon bright spot was winning at Kentucky, besides that they lost to about everyone as they have racked up 13 losses. San Diego turns the ball over a lot which will not be a good thing vs a team who can pressure like UConn. I have UConn moving on but not much of an opinion on the 11
(6) Purdue 3 vs (11) Baylor
Interesting game here as Purdue is a very defensive minded team while Baylor really isn't a big fan of defense. Purdue has 3 great 3 pt shooters in Moore(44%), Grant(47%), and Hummel(44%), I think all 3 are going to find a lot of open shots and in contrast Purdue guards the perimeter very very well as Kramer is a defensive stud and Grant and Moore can defend as well. Baylor will look to make 3s and score with their guards so this is a very good matchup for Purdue imo. Baylor does hold an impressive win over Notre Dame in mid November.
Purdue -3 is the play.(3) Xavier 8.5 vs (14) GeorgiaGeorgia being a 14 seed is a bit low imo, I think Georgia is pretty much done though now and expect Xavier to move on. Not an opinion on the 8.5 though. Xavier is very big and can throw a lot of big bodies into the game, Xaviers 2 leading scorers come from the frontcourt. Georgia is one of the poorest shooting teams in the country and going against a team who can defend like Xavier is not going to help that.
(7) West Virginia 2 vs (10) Arizona The first thing that jumps out to me when looking at West Virginia is the way they turn their opponents over, very impressive as you know a Huggins' team is going to play high pressure defense. West Virginia went 11-7 in the Big East, 8 of those teams made the tourney. Only 2 of West Virginia's conference wins are vs tourney teams which is slightly alarming. Arizona is an interesting case only going 8-10 in the Pac 10 but playing one of the most difficult schedules in the country. They lost an overtime game at Kansas in late November. They beat Illinois and won at UNLV and Houston. Arizona's starting point guard Nic Wise missed 7 games this year which coincides with Arizona's ugliest run of the season (2-5). Leading scorer Jarryd Bayless also missed 4 games this year. The Cats were 1-3 without Bayless. The Cats were 16-6 with all players. Arizona has 2 super talents in Bayless and Budinger and I will be taking Zona over West Virginia here and maybe even over Duke.
Arizona +2(2) Duke 20 vs (15) BelmontNot going to look at this game much, I feel Duke is overseeded at 2, feel Wiscy is more deserving of a 2 as Duke lost 4 of their last 10 and didn't do that much out of conference. I see Arizona giving Duke a good game in the 2nd round. Belmont did win at Cincinnati and at Alabama. They lost by 41 at Xavier.
Midwest Region(1) Kansas 22.5 vs (16) Portland StNot much to say here besides that Kansas will be my Midwest Regional winner and probably my national champion.
(8) UNLV vs (9) Kent St 2.5Once again the lower seeded team is the favorite here. UNLV has a home win over Minnesota but besides that didn't do too much in the noncon, Kent St had the road win at St Marys. Kent St has struggled vs size this season, lucky for them UNLV doesn't have huge size and actually gets outrebounded by opponents. Kent St does turn the ball over 14.6 times per game which is 4 more than UNLV, UNLV takes very good care of the ball. Slightly lean UNLV getting 2.5 even though I would usually like to take the lower seeded favorite.
(5) Clemson 6 vs (12) Villanova
Clemson is another one of the media darlings like Pitt. The funny thing about Clemson is they managed to do it without beating anyone. They played UNC close three times losing all 3 and only played Duke once during the ACC losing that, they did beat Duke in the tourney though. The 4th place team in the ACC was Virginia Tech, Clemson played them once and won by 1 at home. This unbalanced schedule stuff can be interesting as once again this 10-6 ACC record doesn't look quite as good. The UNC losses in overtime were great but they also just won in overtime at home vs Florida St and Wake Forest. They won at Miss St by 2 in early November and beat Purdue by 3 at home while Purdue was awful. This is a team that will pressure and force turnovers and want to run. Villanova has a very good point guard who can handle that pressure in Scottie Reynolds. Clemson shoots 62% from the line. I like Nova getting 6 here but don't think I'll make it a play at this time.
(4) Vanderbilt 7 vs (13) SienaVanderbilt went 10-6 in the SEC while teams like Kentucky and Miss St were able to go 12-4. Vandy's RPI is the 40s or 50s and somehow they are a 4 seed. I don't get it, they lost 7 games, they played noone in the precon besides beating South Alabama in double overtime. Vandy can shoot the 3 though that much is for sure. Siena did have a big win earlier in the year vs Stanford and played Cuse tough but I think they are a year away from doing damage in the tourney. Only one of the top six players is a senior. Siena does take very good care of the ball though and can make some 3s. Siena really has no answer for Ogilvy or Neltner. Vanderbilt will move on and as for the 7, its a toss up, though I'd lean Vandy.
(6) USC 2.5 vs (11) Kansas St2 of the best frosh square off in this 6/11 matchup. The real matchup will be Gibson/Jefferson vs Beasley. If Beasley is slowed down at all, then Kansas St is in trouble. Mayo has so much more firepower around him with Jefferson, Lewis and Gibson, while it is the Beasley/Walker show for Kansas State. Kansas St may be the worst 3 point shooting team in the entire tourney, amazing that these guys can't shoot with Beasley being doubled down upon. I don't have much of an opinion either way in this game but look for USC to move on, Mayo will need to stay under control and not get too crazy under the bright lights of the NCAA tourney.
(3) Wisconsin 11.5 vs (14) Cal St FullertonWisconsin ho-hummed their way to a 29-4 season without much love at all, they even won at Texas, but still can't get higher than a 3 seed. Their 4 losses are to Duke, Marquette, and Purdue. Cal St Fullerton likes to run so they will be out of their realm in a half court game. Fullerton isn't too tall either and Wiscy has a big frontcourt wtih Butch, Landry, Steimsma, and Krahbbenoft. Michael Flowers is a bigtime defender and him vs Mayo in the 2nd round could be an interesting matchup. I like Wiscy to move on here and to advance to the Elite 8.
(7) Gonzaga vs (10) Davidson 2Another lower seeded fav here as Davidson is a 2 point favorite. This game is being played in Davidson's home state which has Mark Few a bit upset. Davidson lost by 4 to North Carolina and by 6 to Duke, pretty impressive there. They also only lost by 12 to UCLA. Gonzaga has a win over UConn and lossses to Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Tennessee. Gonzaga also has an impressive 4 point loss to Memphis. Gonzaga does a good job in the turnover department, Davidson does as well so thats pretty much a wash. Davidson does have Stephen Curry and that could be enough, 44% 3 pt shooter while shooting 90% from the line. I haven't seen him play since last tourney. I like Davidson to move on.
(2) Georgetown 16 vs (15) Maryland Balt CoMaryland Balt is really lacking in size in this matchup and I don't see an upset opportunity here. UMBC only averages 9.6 turnovers per game though so there is hope. They have a couple decent shooters as well. Georgetown's noncon schedule was the normal joke for a Big East school though they did play Memphis and lost by 14.
East Region(1) North Carolina vs (16) Coppin St/Mount St MarysObv North Carolina will advance here, North Carolina is my final four pick losing to Kansas in the semis. North Carolina doesn't love to play defense but that probably won't stop them from advancing to SA. A matchup vs IU in the 2nd round could be interesting, DJ/Hansbourough.
(8) Indiana vs (9) Arkansas (No Line due to Weems injury)
IU was favored by 1 but Arkansas's leading scorer went down with an injury today and he is now questionable. Indiana is another team who I feel is very underseeded after going 25-7 in the regular season. They beat Kentucky, Ill St, Southern Ill, and Georgia Tech in the preseason and lost Xavier and Uconn. The Indiana team from earlier in the season is capable of a final four run but that team was before Eric Gordon's broken wrist and the depature of Kelvin Samspon. Gordon was shooting around 45% from 3 before his wrist and is under 20% since. If Gordon could get his shot back they could beat about anyone, Bassett has also struggled from 3 of late. Arkansas has some big bodies to throw at White, 6'8 and 6'10 and a seven footer off the bench who plays 17 mpg. Arkansas shoots only 67% from the line and turns the ball over slightly more than opponents just as IU does. Indiana is one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country at over 76%. IU hasn't lost a first round game since 01 but they are a popular pick to go down in the 1st round this year. If Weems is indeed injured and out, IU should move on, if not the game is a toss up. Who knows what IU team will show up?
(5) Notre Dame 6.5 vs (12) George MasonNotre Dame is a team I really like and a team I will have moving on to the Sweet 16. Harangody is such a beast and should be in an IU uniform. Mcalarney and Ayres are lights out 3 point shooters. ND crushes teams on the glass. George Mason looked very impressive at times this season beating a fully loaded Dayton team and Kansas St while losing a cloes game to Villanova. Kent St did blow them out and they just went 13-5 in the Colonial league. I really don't see anyone who can guard Harangody so I expect to see a lot of help on him and Harangody is either going to score or find some wide open shooters. Mike Brey is a very underrated coach imo.
(4) Washington St 8.5 vs (13) WinthropIU's next coach could be Tony Bennett who has turned Wash St into a pretty decent program playing the slow pace style. Washington St is a fundamentally sound team who only turns it over 10 times a game and shoots free throws very well at 74%. Washington St didn't play too many teams in the noncon but did win at Baylor and at Gonzaga. They were swept by UCLA and Stanford but did sweep USC. They lost 8 games, not sure how they are a 4 seed really. Winthrop starts 4 seniors who all played in the NCAA tourney last year and the year before. They defeated Notre Dame last year before falling to Oregon and they were the 15 seed the year Tennessee's Lofton hit the buzzer beater to win by 2. Gregg Marshall was the head coach those years though and this is his first year gone from the program. Winthrop beat Georgia Tech but lost to Baylor, West Virginia, Ole Miss, and Mt St Marys in hte noncon. They went just 10-4 in conference. Still with such a senior lineup and this game being played at a slowed down pace, I like the 8.5 points here. Winthrops under 60% free throw shooting is very ugly though and odd from a senior laden team. Winthrop allows less than 60 ppg so I think they can hang close.
Winthrop +8.5(6) Oklahoma 1.5 vs (11) St. JoesA very close line for a 6/11 matchup and for good reason, Oklahoma isn't a 6, nowhere near a 6. Oklahoma went 22-11 and 9-7 in the Big 12. They lost to Texas 3 times by 10,17, and 28 in the last game of the year. They lost to Kansas by 30. They lost to Kansas St at home, so they have ZERO wins over the top 3 Big 12 teams. They did sweep Baylor. They lost to Memphis, USC, and Stephen F Austin in the preseason, they beat Gonzga and West Virginia. A 6 seed, ha, and Butler is a 7 and IU an 8, come on. St Joes did not have much success outside of conference or really in conference for that matter going just 9-7, they had close losses to Cuse and Gonzaga(OT) in preseason and lost at Creighton in OT. They did beat Nova. St Joes starts 2 seniors, 2 juniors and a soph. St Joes has the bodies to deal with Griffin and I look for St Joes to move on here.
(3) Louisville 13 vs (14) Boise StLouisville is a team that can play with anyone especially when they are healthy like now. They had a rough spot in December losing to BYU, Dayton, and Purdue but they weren't healthy at the time. Palacios missed 9 games and Padgett missed 10 on the year, I believe Caracter missed that Purdue game as well. Boise St turns the ball over a lot which is a big concern facing Louisville The point guard is just a freshman. Boise St did not face too much competition this year, they did lose to Washington St and did beat San Diego. Both teams are poor free throw shooting teams. I see Louisville moving on to the Sweet 16 at least.
(7) Butler 4 vs (10) South AlabamaHere is my final beef with the selection committee, Butler being a 7 seed, joke. Here is a team who went 29-3 and is ranked 19th in the RPI. They went on the road and won at Ball st and Eville, beat Michigan, Texas Tech, and Virginia Tech in Alaska, beat Ohio st by 19, won at Detroit, and beat Florida St by 11 on a neutral site. They also went on the road and beat Southern Illinois, they did lose to Drake at home. Pretty impressive noncon slate there. This team starts 4 seniors and the first guy off the bench is a senior as well. Butler commits just 10 turnovers per game. South Alabama turns it over 13 times a game. South Alabama lost to Ole Miss, Iami, Vanderbilt in noncon, they did beat Mississippi St. South Alabama is a junior/senior laden team. This Butler team advanced to the Sweet 16 last year giving Florida an absolute battle. I like Butler giving only 4 here as they are a good free throw shooting team and if its close at the end they can close it out. This game being in Alabama is just a minor concern for Butler as it is still three hours away and not like South Alabama is some huge traveling school.
Butler -4 is the play.(2) Tennessee 20 vs (15) AmericanNot going to say much about this game, I have Tennessee moving on obv.
In the final 4
Kansas beats North Carolina and Texas beats UCLA, Kansas beats Texas again to win it all. I've only won one pool in my life which was the year UNC beat Illinois, I actually had the whole final 4 right, which was pretty good considering Louisville was a 4 seed and Michigan St was a 5 seed. This year is a lot more chalky for me with 3 #1 seeds, but I see a big dropoff in talent on paper at least.
On the poker front, I've just been 8 tabling 1-2 NL taking it easy. I played one tourney on Sunday which was a Freeroll for Supernovas giving away 16 WSOP Main Event packages. I won which is basically $13,500 in my pocket. weeeeeeee
